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It was eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the source for Villa's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. When Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

It remains a particularly tough proposition to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have piled up.

As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem strangely fragile – but currently the margins are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential England player.

The current run must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. When the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.